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| Joined: | Mon Nov 21st, 2005 |
| Location: | California USA |
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While warriors and politicians have failed to deliver a secure source of cheap energy, scientists and business people have been doubling solar energy production every two years. That our politicians remain mired in the energy technology of the nineteenth century has nothing to do with the diluteness of sunlight, or its relative cost. Instead, they seem so enamored of the political power that comes with the ideology of Big Energy that they would destroy the economy in the name of saving it.
It is time to do more numbers. My wife and I had another one of our arguments and I will tell that story before moving onto the current numbers.
I hobble out of the truck and hop over to the gas pump. My card goes through the slot and soon the fluid flows into the Ford’s gas tank. The cost in dollar units is over 80. The truck is used by me and my wife for various chores including the hauling of heavy things. I hop because one foot is being repaired and it cannot support weight yet.
I get home and make a comment as I plop down on the couch and prop my black-red leg up.
“80 dollars to fill up the truck; an electric car and solar panels pay for themselves and add more money to the bank account.” I say that general theme if not those precise words. Much of the argumentation between my wife and I concerns imprecise language.
“Do you know where to get an electric car that won’t turn out to be a lemon?” My wife responds. She is cooling up to the idea and the price of gas is helping move her. She is the only one generating an income at this time in our lives. I generated an income for 25 years until my employers deceived me out of any insurance claim after my body wore out at work. My doctor bills are now paid for by my wife and her insurance policy purchased after my employers lied and forced me out of work. I think I left that dishonorable relationship with my honor intact; other people consider me to be ‘too honest’ or even stupid.
The argument with my wife went sour because that is what arguments are and the bottom line is that we are not yet in a position to purchase anything; let alone invest. We are surviving on a resent liquidation of an earlier investment and my wife’s ability to generate an income.
Here are two possible examples of cars:
http://www.aptera.com/ask.php
How long will it take to charge the Aptera?
This depends on the amount of battery discharge but a typical time would be 2 to 4 hours.
How much will it cost for an overnight charge?
Looking at typical California electricity rates the cost should be in the $1 to $2 range for an overnight charge.
http://www.teslamotors.com/
The cost per mile is advertised as 2 cents.
A 30 mile per gallon gasoline powered vehicle at 3 dollars per gallon costs 10 cents per mile.
That is what happens when comparing the cost per mile against the cost per mile.
2 is less than 10.
2 is cheaper than 10 by more than a little.
In easy to understand terms:
I drive up to the gas station and pay 80 dollars.
I drive in the garage and spend 2 dollars to charge my car up over night.
80 dollars can last me one month if I don't drive around much. The 'savings' is already in the books as reported above where the 30 mile per gallon gas vehicle at 3 dollars per gallon is 10 cents per mile. My truck does not average 30 miles per gallon and gasoline is now almost 4 dollars per gallon. The electric car is 2 (not 10) cents per mile.
Back to practical knowlege?
Suppose I can go 500 miles in the truck for 80 dollars?
Compare that to range on the car that charges up in four hours at a cost of 2 dollar per charge. What is the range on that car?
With the All Electric Aptera, it is very easy to figure out the mileage range. The mileage is determined by the distance you can drive, under normal circumstances, until the batteries are effectively drained. In the case of the first Aptera typ-1e, we have calculated the range to be about 120miles.
More power is needed to drive up a steep hill that goes on and on and on for 120 miles. Less power is required to go down hill. This is very simple. The Tesla car has brakes that generate electricity so going down a steep hill or using the brakes adds more power to the batteries.
Suppose my new car does go 100 miles on 2 dollars worth of electricity and I go 500 miles in two weeks. That will be 5 charges worth or 10 dollars worth of power. My truck costs 80 dollars to drive 500 miles.
10 dollars or 80 dollars for 500 miles should not be a difficult choice.
That supposed a requirement to pay for electricity.
Enter stage left: Solar Panels.
I will check current prices again and I will map out what I call Power-Independence Day again. The idea here is to know the cost of purchasing one Solar Panel and then find out how much time it takes to generate the power needed to pay for the Solar panel. That will find Power-Independence Day. The Solar Panel on Power-Independence Day will pay for itself. Then the idea is to know how much more time is left before the Solar Panel runs out of power.
This is simple people. Economists like to throw out words that sound really important like “depreciation”; and that is fine. The Power-Independence concept is easier to see than the concept of “depreciation”. You spend your hard earned income on a Solar Panel. The Solar Panel generates electricity for about 25 years. If you use the electricity during that 25 years time you don’t pay for that electricity for 25 years time. If the total amount of electricity you generate in 25 years time is big, like a BIG electric bill, then you pay for that Solar Panel by generating INCOME from the Sun. If you generate a whole lot of electricity in 25 years your income is more than the cost of the Solar Panel. How much more power is produced from a Solar Panel over (more than) the cost of the Solar Panel.
The last time I calculated this cost/benefit ratio the numbers were almost twice the cost of the Solar Panel. In other words one Solar Panel can pay for itself and than that Solar Panel continues to make enough income to buy one more Solar Panel. That is like hiring an illegal alien (from Mars?) to pedal a bicycle to generate income for 15 years and then having that worker work for free for 10 years or so. All that is needed is CREDIT to get the ball rolling or SAVINGS if you have no CREDIT or if CREDIT is too expensive (interest rate is high).
Numbers:
http://www.solarhome.org/index.asp?PageAction=VIEWCATS&Category=100
That is a 100 watt Solar Panel (quick search) and the cost is 600 dollars.
SW modules are manufactured to comply with U.S. and international standards, and are UL listed and carry a 25-year, 80% power output warranty.
The idea here is to figure out how much total power is produced and see by that measure if the thing will actually pay for itself.
Suppose the Sun shines for 10 hours a day. This is a ball park number; just for fun. The reality of these facts is unquestionably true while our ability to see the facts and then use those facts to our advantage is not unquestionably true.
10 hours per day for 365 days per year and 25 years is 91,250 hours. The idea behind using hours as a measure of INCOME is due to the measure of price/cost of electricity. Look on your electric bill and see the price of electricity. The price is based upon a kilowatt hour. The Solar Panel is measured in watts at 100 watts in this case for this Solar Panel. A watt is generated every second. That is a lot of seconds a lot of minutes and a lot of hours. Time goes on for 25 years at 100 watts. If the Solar Panel generates electricity for 10 hours then the Solar Panel generates 100 watts for 10 hours. That is 100 kilowatt hours for 10 hours or 1 kilowatt hour. That could be multiplied by 365 and 25 to arrive at total power produced.
9,125,000
Either way the math works out the same. That number is total watt hours. A kilowatt is 1000 watts so take away three zeros to get total kilowatt hours produced in 25 years. This doesn’t have to be so complicated. The advertisers could figure this all out for you if competition was working instead of our current form of “Capitalism” which is really National Socialism.
9,125 total kilowatt hours of income produced for a Solar Panel that costs 600 dollars.
How much does electricity cost? Here things become very funny and not in the ‘ha-ha’ sense. Pay attention to actual rate changes during ‘peak hours’ and the advertised rate of price on electricity is irrelevant, however we need a ball park.
http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/current_electricity_rates.html
We can use 12 cents per kilowatt-hour.
9,125 total kilowatt hours of income produced in 25 years at 12 cents per kilowatt hour equals a total income of power.
9,125 times .12 equals 1095
Granted, please, this is very rough figures. The point is to point out how the Solar Panel is like hiring an illegal alien from mars to pedal a generator on the roof of your home. The worker works for a total salary of 600 dollars while the worker produces for you a total income of 1,095 dollars.
You save about 400 dollars. The illegal alien works 10 hours a day, every day, for 25 years guaranteed.
You end up paying negative 400 dollars for investment and that is the cost of your fuel for your car. The cost is negative. You earn income. Someone pays you 400 dollars for buying a Solar Panel. If you do not see this, then don’t.
Pay, like me, 80 dollars to go 500 miles instead of paying 10 dollars to go 500 miles and instead of having someone pay you 400 dollars to use their power. Who pays out the 400 dollars? The sun pays. The sun powers us up. Wake up woman. Wake up man, the sun is shining.
Last edited on Wed Apr 30th, 2008 02:00 pm by Joe Kelley